It would seem quite churlish to utter these words at a time when the Arab world believes it is experiencing a "Berlin Wall moment"; the barriers are falling, people are euphoric, the possibilities are endless and everyone is young again. Tanks refuse to point their guns at the people and soldiers happily stuff flowers into their gun barrels. It is very likely that the departure of the rapacious Ben Ali will be followed by that of Hosni Mubarak.
But we should be careful with the celebrations. The example of Iran stands before us. The departure of the Shah was followed by the brief government of Shahpour Bakhtiar during which time Ayatollah Khomeini returned. From there to the Islamic dictatorship was but a short step. We are experiencing the fallout today.
The Israelis are naturally concerned with what is happening in Egypt. So are the Americans, because what happens in Egypt next will determine what happens to the peace process. For Israel, the proposed settlement with the Palestinians was underpinned by a relatively secure border with Egypt guaranteed by the Camp David accords and about $2b p.a. in aid to Egypt from the United States. If that critical assumption was to fall away, It will become extremely dificult to make progress towards a Palestinian state. Binyamin Netanyahu is no De Klerk - he is not a man who sees history unfolding. As the rightist factions get more strident, compromise will become difficult. Another intifada will be dealt with using the familiar, frightening Israeli competence. But there will be no accord, and no permanent peace.
The term that Fareed Zakaria used was "illiberal democracies". If a democracy emerges from the Egyptian chaos, there is no way it will be liberal, based on past evidence. Further, it is likely the Muslim Brotherhood will hold all the cards should there be an election, and they are implacably opposed to even the idea of Israel.
So should we deny the Egyptians this moment because of these geo-political concerns. Countries have a right to choose their government. The chaos that will follow when Mubarak goes is unfortunate, because the obverse is not acceptable at all. How many more years will Arabs have to tolerate crackpot rulers who foist their sons on them like so many tribal chiefs. Arabs deserve better.
This will mean a fundamental reassessment of Israel's national interest will become necessary, and that would not be a bad outcome. An assessment that says that sooner or later, an embattled fortress state of Jews will be swallowed up by its internal contradictions unless it is very much more accomodative of the needs of those it displaced in its creation. Unless it unites internal political opinion to come around to the fact that a honourable settlement is one that is honourable to both parties. The recent wikileaks documents show that the Palestinians have been most flexible. Israel needs to show the same spirit.
And for America, they have to deal with it, and I think they will.
